Stocks Settle Mixed Ahead of Nvidia’s Earnings

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Wednesday closed unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.08%.

Stocks on Wednesday settled mixed ahead of quarterly earnings results from Nvidia after the close.  Target closed down more than -21% to lead retailers lower after cutting its full-year outlook due to flat sales and an inventory buildup.  Also, technology stocks were under pressure on Wednesday from weakness in chip stocks. 

On the positive side, health insurance stocks rallied Wednesday after RBC Capital Markets said the nomination of Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is positive for the sector.  Also, geopolitical tensions in Europe ratcheted lower Wednesday after Reuters reported that Russian President Putin is willing to talk with US President-elect Trump about a cease-fire deal in Ukraine that could roughly freeze the war along current front lines.

Comments today from Fed Governor Cook were neutral to slightly dovish when she said, "It likely will be appropriate to move the policy rate toward a more neutral stance over time," but the "magnitude and timing" of reductions will depend on incoming data and the economic outlook.  However, comments from Fed Governor Bowman were hawkish when she said, "I would prefer to proceed cautiously in bringing the policy rate down to better assess how far we are from the endpoint while recognizing that we have not yet achieved our inflation goal and closely watching the evolution of the labor market."

US MBA mortgage applications rose +1.7% in the week ended November 15, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +2.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index +1.8%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +4 bp to a 4-month high of 6.90% from 6.86% in the prior week.

The markets eagerly await quarterly earnings results from Nvidia after Wednesday’s close to see if the world’s most valuable company will show strong spending for its AI hardware can continue.  The consensus is for Nvidia to report record Q3 revenue of $33.25 billion and forecast Q4 revenue of $37.1 billion.  Also, the consensus is for 2025 revenue of $126.58 billion. 

Of the 90% of companies in the S&P 500 that have released Q3 earnings so far, 75% surpassed the estimates, slightly below the 3-year average.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 have reported an average +8.5% y/y increase in quarterly earnings in Q3, more than double the preseason forecast.

The markets are discounting the chances at 52% for a -25 bp rate cut at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets on Wednesday settled mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.45%.  China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up +0.66%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 Index closed down -0.16%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ24) Wednesday closed down -5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.6 bp to 4.412%. Dec T-notes Wednesday posted moderate losses due to carryover pressure from weakness in European government bonds. Also, a slight easing of Ukraine-Russian tensions curbed some safe-haven demand for T-notes after Reuters reported that Russian President Putin was willing to talk to US President-elect Trump about a cease-fire deal in Ukraine.  T-notes held moderate losses Wednesday due to weak demand for the Treasury’s $16 billion auction of 20-year T-bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.34, well below the 10-auction average of 2.34 and the lowest in more than 2 years.

European government bond yields on Wednesday moved higher.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +1.3 bp to 2.351%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +2.7 bp to 4.469%.

Eurozone Q3 negotiated pay rose +5.4% y/y, the largest increase since the euro was introduced in 1999.

UK Oct CPI rose +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.2% y/y. UK Oct core CPI rose +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +3.1% y/y.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 19% for a -50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.

US Stock Movers

Target (TGT) closed down more than -21% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and lead retailers lower after reporting Q3 comparable sales rose +0.3%, well below the consensus of +1.48%, and cut its 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $8.30-$8.90 from a previous estimate of $9.00-$9.70, weaker than the consensus of $9.57.  Also, Dollar General (DG) closed down more than -4%, and Dollar Tree (DLTR) closed down more than -2%.

Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than -6% to lead chip stocks lower after Susquehanna Financial cut its price target on the stock to $210 from $230.   Also, GlobalFoundries (GFS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -1%.  In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) closed down more than -0.75%. 

Fabrinet (FN) closed down more than -8% after B Riley Securities downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $178. 

XP Inc (XP) closed down more than -6% after reporting Q3 revenue below expectations, and CFO Mansur said that equity markets will face more difficulties next year due to the macroeconomic situation.

Powell Industries (POWL) closed down more than -16% after reporting Q4 revenue of $275.1 million, weaker than the consensus of $284.3 million. 

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed down more than -2% after Jeffries said the company has an “unsustainable” multiple as it maintained its underperform rating on the stock with a price target of $28. 

Ford Motor (F) closed down more than -2% after saying it plans to eliminate 4,000 jobs in Europe due to lackluster sales of electric vehicles in the region.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closed down -0.87% after Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to perform from outperform.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS) closed up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, better than the consensus of $1.26 billion, and forecast Q1 revenue of $1.27 billion-$1.29 billion, stronger than the consensus of $1.24 billion. 

Health insurance stocks rallied Wednesday after RBC Capital Markets said the nomination of Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services is positive for the sector.  As a result, Humana (HUM) closed up more than +5%, and Molina Healthcare (MOH) closed up more than +4%.  Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed up more than +4% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.  In addition, Centene (CNC) closed up more than +2%, and CVS Health (CVS) closed up more than +1%. 

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) closed up more than +27% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.96, stronger than the consensus of $1.76.

Wix.com (WIX) closed up more than +14% after boosting its full-year revenue forecast to $.176 billion from a previous forecast of $1.75 billion-$1.76 billion.

Flex Ltd (FLEX) closed up more than +6% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will replace Azenta in the S&P MidCap 400 effective November 27. 

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) closed up more than +2% after Bloomberg’s Green Markets reported the company is raising prices effective January 1, 2025.

AppLovin (APP) closed up more than +1% after Piper Sandler initiated coverage on the stock with a recommendation of overweight and a price target of $400. 

Earnings Reports (11/21/2024)

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ), Copart Inc (CPRT), Deere & Co (DE), Elastic NV (ESTC), Gap Inc/The (GAP), Intuit Inc (INTU), NetApp Inc (NTAP), Ross Stores Inc (ROST), UGI Corp (UGI), Vestis Corp (VSTS).