Strong Earnings Push the S&P 500 to New Record High

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.74%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.51%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +0.50%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.47%.

Stock indices are edging higher today, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials posting new all-time highs and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 1-month high.  Some positive corporate earnings results are supporting gains in stock indices today. Booking Holdings is up more than +7% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 gross bookings.  Also, Amgen is up more than +5% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 EPS.

On the negative side, SpaceX is down more than -10% after the company projected higher-than-expected spending on its AI business.  Also, Advanced Micro Devices is down more than -4% after the company’s third-quarter sales forecast underwhelmed investors expecting stronger performance amid healthy demand.

Market sentiment also weakened after crude oil prices recovered from overnight losses and moved higher when Yemen’s Houthi militant group threatened to escalate attacks on Saudi vessels in the northern Red Sea. 

US MBA mortgage applications fell -2.9% in the week ended July 31, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -3.6% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -1.9%.  The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +5 bp to a 1-year high of 6.81% from 6.76% in the prior week.

The US July ADP employment change rose by +44,000, weaker than expectations of +65,000.

Tuesday evening, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, "Given the strength of demand and investment, I do not see the current stance of monetary policy as restrictive.  As such, I believe that bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% objective will require tighter policy."

Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rebounded from a 3-week low today and moved higher after a Houthi military spokesperson said the group will escalate attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area.  However, gains in crude are limited after Axios reported that the US, Iran and Oman were nearing an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  President Trump has threatened Iran with renewed air strikes and stressed that his latest offer of talks is Iran’s “last chance” as he demanded full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  A diplomatic resolution is hanging on talks between Oman and Iran to get more ships moving through the strait, but Iran continues to insist on its authority over the waterway. 

The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 86% of the 372 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. 

The markets are discounting a 58% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new all-time high and is up +0.15%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 2-week high and closed up +1.47%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average rose to a 1.5-week high and closed up +3.66%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down +2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.629%.  Sep T-notes fell from a 2-week high today and moved lower, and the 10-year T-note yield rebounded from a 1-week low of 4.592%.  Strength in stocks today has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt securities and is weighing on T-note prices.  Also, Tuesday evening’s hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid weighed on T-notes when he said tighter Fed policy is needed to reduce inflation.  Losses in T-notes are limited after today’s July ADP employment report showed employers added fewer jobs than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. 

In supportive news for T-note prices, the Treasury today maintained the amount of government securities to be auctioned at next week’s quarterly refunding at $125 billion, unchanged from last quarter, and retained its previous guidance for future debt issuance, signaling no change in note and bond auction sizes well into 2027.

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield rebounded from a 3-week low of 3.088% and is up +0.9 bp to 3.116%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 3.5-week low of 4.878% and is up +0.9 bp to 4.905%.

The Eurozone July S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 52.0 from the previously reported 51.9. 

Eurozone June PPI eased to 4.6% y/y from 5.9% y/y in May, right on expectations.

Markets are discounting an 81% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.

US Stock Movers

Mining stocks are climbing today with gold and silver prices rallying to 1-month highs and copper prices soaring to a 2-month high.  Anglogold Ashanti (AU) is up more than +8%, and Hecla Mining (HL) is up more than +7%.  Also, Newmont Corp (NEM) and Coeur Mining (CDE) are up more than +6%, and Barrick Mining (B) is up more than +5%.  In addition, Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is up more than +3%, and Southern Copper (SCCO) is up more than +2%.

Shopify (SHOP) is up more than +16% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 revenue of $3.58 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.45 billion. 

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.24, better than the consensus of $1.15.

Kratos (KTOS) is up more than +10% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $1.75 billion to $1.81 billion from a previous estimate of $1.70 billion to $1.76 billion, better than the consensus of $1.74 billion.

Everus Construction (ECG) is up more than +10% after raising its 2026 revenue estimate to $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion from a previous estimate of $4.3 billion to $4.4 billion. 

Booking Holdings (BKNG) is up more than +7% after reporting Q2 gross bookings of $51.00 billion, above the consensus of $49.68 billion.

Amgen (AMGN) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.29, well above the consensus of $5.62.

Compass (COMP) is up more than +5% after reporting Q2 revenue of $4.31 billion, above the consensus of $4.11 billion, and forecasting Q3 revenue of $3.85 billion to $4.05 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.77 billion. 

Arista Networks (ANET) is up more than +2% after reporting Q2 revenue of $3.04 billion, well above the consensus of $2.83 billion, and forecasting Q3 revenue of $3.30 billion, better than the consensus of $2.95 billion. 

Insulet (PODD) is down more than -19% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after cutting its full-year revenue estimate on a constant currency basis to +20% to +2% from a previous estimate of +21% to +23%. 

DaVita (DVA) is down more than -17% after reporting Q2 dialysis revenue per treatment of $415.87, below the consensus of $417.16, and forecasting full-year adjusted operating income of $2.15 billion to $2.25 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.23 billion.

CDW (CDW) is down more than -16% after reporting a Q2 gross profit margin of 20.1%, below the consensus of 21%.

SpaceX (SPCX) is down more than -10% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after disclosing higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

Match Group (MTCH) is down more than -7% after reporting Q2 revenue of $853.1 million, below the consensus of $856.6 million, and forecasting Q3 revenue of $885 million to $895 million, the midpoint below the consensus of $891.2 million. 

Viasat (VSAT) is down more than -5% after reporting Q1 revenue of $1.16 billion, below the consensus of $1.20 billion. 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is down more than -4% after its Q3 sales forecast underwhelmed investors expecting a stronger performance amid healthy demand. 

Earnings Reports (8/5/2026)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Allstate Corp/The (ALL), APA Corp (APA), AppLovin Corp (APP), Atmos Energy Corp (ATO), Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON), Block Inc (XYZ), CDW Corp/DE (CDW), Cencora Inc (COR), CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), Corpay Inc (CPAY), CVS Health Corp (CVS), DoorDash Inc (DASH), eBay Inc (EBAY), Eli Lilly & Co (LLY), Expedia Group Inc (EXPE), Global Payments Inc (GPN), Honeywell Aerospace Inc (HONA), Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST), Insulet Corp (PODD), Iron Mountain Inc (IRM), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), McKesson Corp (MCK), MetLife Inc (MET), Motorola Solutions Inc (MSI), News Corp (NWSA), NiSource Inc (NI), Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY), Phillips 66 (PSX), Realty Income Corp (O), Sandisk Corp (SNDK), Solventum Corp (SOLV), STERIS PLC (STE), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Uber Technologies Inc (UBER), Walt Disney Co/The (DIS), Western Digital Corp (WDC), Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc (ZBH).