December Soybean Meal has decreased by over 17% since early October.  The current leg down has a 52-day duration which is similar to the 48 days drop between late May and mid-July.

Despite the high carry yield, front month Corn has yet to break through the declining trendline. Coffee, on the other hand, has broken through the upper channel and is aggressively breaking out.

December Lean Hogs has increased by over 36% since July.  On Thursday, Lean Hogs dropped (2.2%) and broke through the upward trendline.  This was confirmed on Friday when the market again closed below...

Fron month Arabica Coffee has completed a massive “head fake” over the past several trading days. Coffee broke through the bottom of the trendline in late October and appeared destined for lower prices....

When hedge funds begin to unwind these record positions, this will put significant pressure on market prices,

Copper has been very volatile for the past few days trading.  Based on the last 3 bars, lower prices seem most likely.

Arabica Coffee broke through the bottom of the upward channel in mid-October, challenged the resistance and has drifted since. Given the high carry yield, lowest prices seem the most likely.

Cotton broke through the downward wedge in mid-August but has moved sideways ever since.  Cotton has built a nice base to move up into seasonal strength.

Soybean Oil and Lean Hogs are at 52-week highs for hedge fund position estimates and are currently experiencing technical break outs. Live Cattle is also at extreme levels for hedge fund positions and...

Given the sharp increases over the past few months, it is unclear if these markets can maintain these elevated levels. Both markets can continue to grind higher but lower prices appears the most likely....