E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
- S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5683, up 18.25
- NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,583.75, up 59.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures notched a positive session to start the week, but the rebound from last Thursday’s pullback has certainly felt exhausting. Much of the focus has been the rotation to under-loved cyclicals and small caps. In fact, with this morning’s extension, E-mini Russell 2000 futures are up more than 8% since Thursday’s CPI report, which showed pockets of disinflation. However, despite a fresh record high in the E-mini S&P yesterday, overhead supply from last Wednesday’s panic buying and Thursday’s reversal has left a thick pocket of damage (resistance) in which both the S&P and NQ have struggled to repair. Over these last two and three sessions, both indices have created upper-end tails on the daily candlestick, a pattern that exudes near-term exhaustion. During recent pullbacks and consolidations before legging higher, both indices also left tails, but on the bottom-end of the daily candlestick. While this type of activity exudes caution, we also consider the chase for performance, yield, or a catch-up from the worst performing assets (small caps) as something that typically shows up before a healthy pullback within a bull market. If you have been following us, you know our Bias has been unequivocally Bullish, but we will now Neutralize our Bias to watch a round or two of this fight. Although many cite improving market breadth, we see this as one sign for near-term caution.
- Bias: Neutral
- Resistance: 5695.75-5699.25**, 5707.75-5708.25***, 5718.75**, 5762.75****
- Pivot: 5683-5688
- Support: 5673-5676.50**, 5660-5666****, 5649.75*, 5639.75-5642.50***, 5629.25-5631.25**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5605-5608.25***, 5581-5588***
NQ (September)
- Resistance: 20,661-20,676**, 20,703-20,741***, 20,796-20,822***, 20,900**, 20,983-21,016****
- Pivot: 20,620
- Support: 20,506-20,525***, 20,425-20,442***, 20,335-20,373***, 20,255-20,274****, 20,206-20,216***, 20,000-20,052**, 19,927***, 19,726-19,756****
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