E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5217.50, down 158.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,013.25, down 543.00
The Sunday night price dump was panic, pure and simple. Ultimately, after a prolonged period of low volatility, a market tremor like such becomes overdue. In fact, the longer volatility stays tight, and the market fails to pull back sharply, it lays the groundwork for an exacerbated move. The VIX failed to hold above 20-25, truly since the thick of the banking crisis in March 2023, when we were coming out of more sustained volatility in 2022. We do believe the significant rise in the Japanese Yen created a leverage unwind that was the main catalyst for such a violent move, however, it does not act alone, and weakness related to chips, the bullish leadership, and soft earnings allowed Warrant Buffett’s slashing of his apple stock to be the cherry on top. Additionally, toss into the stew a heightened geopolitical environment.
Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report yesterday afternoon and compared the violent move to that of August 2015 and February 2018, where pent up volatility took hold Sunday night, and into Monday. He described why he was increasing Blue Line Capital’s stake in META and AVGO, but added although the 2015 and 2018 corrections into a Monday marked the bottom, price action did chop around for a few sessions before ultimately going on to set new highs. (the spot will be posted to our site later this morning)
Today we look for construction out above major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5217.50-52225 and 5189-5192.25 in order to encourage buyers to defend the waves of selling that such an event likely incurs in the days to come. Additionally, we want the E-mini NQ and tech to reestablish leadership and rally could get legs with a move out above major three-star resistance at.....
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Hypothetical perfomance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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