Will the U.S. government face another shutdown?

Some things are trendy, some things go out of style, and some things are constant, like the annual debates about the threat of a U.S. government shutdown or, God forbid, a default due to political gridlock. 
But wait. What's the big deal if, in March of this year, the Senate, following the House of Representatives, passed a $1.2 trillion budget, averting a federal government shutdown? 
This budget covered the current fiscal year 2024, which ends on September 30. However, no funds were allocated for the period thereafter. So, the problem is back on the agenda... 
Panic began to set in as usual, with little time left to avoid the worst. After a month-long summer recess, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was the first to stoke the frenzy. 
For his part, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a stopgap funding bill to keep the federal government running until March 2025, but Democrats and President Joe Biden rejected it on Monday. 
What does a government shutdown mean? 
Most government offices would close temporarily. As a result, more than one million federal employees could be sent home or work without pay. 
It should be noted that lawmakers would continue to work and get paid. Cutting their pay until they reach an agreement might make more sense. 
As for the impact on stocks, in the last twenty years, the U.S. government has shut down four times, three of them during Donald Trump's presidency. These shutdowns did not have a significant influence. 
In fact, during all of them, the S&P 500 posted gains. In the shutdown that began on Jan. 25, 2019, and lasted 35 days, the S&P 500 was up 10%, according to Dow Jones Market Data analysis. 
What can we expect this time? 
The chances of a shutdown are low because the fear of an election-year deadlock will probably push congressional leaders to agree on a continuing resolution until early December. 
However, it is also possible that Republicans will try to take advantage of the situation to push legislation that would make it more difficult to register to vote in all 50 states. 
In any case, Congress will likely pass a temporary budget eventually. This would prevent a shutdown and give lawmakers time to address the contentious issues, so there’s no need for premature alarm. 
Overall, the market remains uncertain, and recent optimism has faded, as evidenced by corrections in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq due to recession fears and a less dovish Fed. 
Political manoeuvring, especially as the 2024 elections draw nearer, could influence the legislative process and complicate negotiations. Investors should stay informed and cautious, as even if a shutdown is avoided, broader economic uncertainties could continue to weigh on markets and public sentiment.