WTI Crude Oil Futures (March)
Yesterday’s Settlement: 75.83, down -1.56 [-2.02%]
WTI Crude Oil futures settled lower again yesterday on Trump tariff threats. Over the past two days, the president has threatened to tariff imports from Canada and Mexico at 25% and China at 10% starting February 1st.
Yesterday, the Houthis announced they would quit attacking British and American-flagged ships passing through the Red Sea. This should ease shipping costs and times of crude oil.
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The cold and snowy forecasts we detailed in the previous weeks have been realized. Wells in Texas through North Dakota have been shut in due to the cold and snowy conditions and export / refinery hubs in the gulf are facing delays. The snow and cold as a bullish catalyst was largely priced into markets in the lead-up to this week when the forecasts were released.
Today, futures are lower by -0.26 [-0.33%]
There has been a sharp drop in the dollar over the past two sessions that has not followed through into crude pricing.
The main driver of crude has been the Trump tariff threats. Tariffs are great at quickly slowing the global economy, which correlates directly with lower crude oil usage.
This morning, India widened their approval of Russian insurers which will allow some of their cheap Russian crude imports to remain flowing.
This morning, the macro environment is trading mixed to risk-on. Equities are stronger alongside bonds while the dollar is weaker and gold is higher. Dollar weakness is something to eye closely as the long dollar trade is either at interim support or faces the risk of a reversal at these levels.
Technical Analysis:
Futures settled within our pivot range of 75.75-76.16 yesterday, leaving no clear trade in sight. Our closest high conviction buy area lies at the 74.18-74.49* level. We have yet to see a retest of the 76.93-77.04* level which will be telling for the price action momentum to come.
Our pivot and point of balance will remain at the 75.75-76.16 level for the day as we’d like to gauge a settlement above or below this level before gauging the probability of the next move. Traders should remain prepared for amplified volatility as we face expanded ranges and a volatile macroeconomic and political backdrop.
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