Feeder Cattle (March)
March feeder cattle futures attempted to pop out of the top end of the range but fell flat against resistance, which keeps the market mostly range bound between 265ish and 270ish. A breakout above or below here could lead to a higher velocity move in the corresponding direction.
There have been multiple reports out of Mexico regarding the boarder reopening for cattle trade, but we have yet to see any definitive statement from the USDA.
Resistance: 270.05-271.00*
Pivot: 266.75-267.75
Support: 263.00-263.27**, 260.075-260.70****
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
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Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 2.500 contracts, expanding their net long position to another new record, 28,749. The 3-year chart of fund positioning below speaks for itself.
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Lean Hogs (February)
February lean hogs were choppy in yesterday’s trade, which amounted to a “ho-hum” day. The deferred contracts saw more weakness, which does not look great on a chart. We like looking at the bearish side for deferred contracts out to June and believe options are a good way to gain that exposure while limiting risk.
Resistance: 83.97-84.30***, 86.50-87.00****
Pivot: 82.05-82.27
Support: 80.75-81.20**, 78.90-79.20****
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
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