SP 500 Futures, Key Levels to Watch

SP 500 Futures

(ESH25) 

The chart below is key to this analysis.

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.

The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.

There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

We have done 44 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.

Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here.

1/26/25

ESH25

From last week,

Monday it traded below the 5850.25 major Gann square, but closed back above it and it hit both, the short term target of the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the 12/6/24 high at 6054.00 ($3 short). As always failing to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can cause a sharp sell off per the ONE44 78.6% rule. We will use the same rule for the short term downside target. Above we are still watching the Major Gann square cluster between 6102.00 and 6142.00 for a longer term top..

Use 6054.00 (78.6%) as the swing point for the week.

 Above it, the March chart still has a 78.6% retracement at 6099.00 and this lines up with the cluster of major Gann squares (6102.00/6142.00). Once above the 6142.00 major Gann square it will become the swing point for the week and the target becomes the next major Gann square at 6290.75.

The low for the week could not even get back below the 5993.00 major Gann square, there was also no setback from the March 78.6% level at 6099.00. It made a new high on the nearby chart and had one close above the top end of the cluster of major Gann squares at 6142.00, however it closed back below it on Friday and this will be the key level for the next week.

Use 6142.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 6290.75 and 6443.00. 

Below it, provided it stays below the 6142.00 major Gann square it is still possible for a longer term top to be formed. It has already had two $300 setbacks after hitting the first part of the Gann square cluster at 6102.00. Getting right back below 6102.00 after making a new ATH can cause another big setback. The short term target is 23.6% back to the 8/5/24 low at 5915.00, the next key level of support is 38.2% of the same move at 5763.00. The long term target is 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5530.00. Any setback that holds the previous major Gann square at 5993.00 keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
 

FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.