1/27/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed today, with the Fats and Feeders both setting new contract highs. The Fats traded over 205.00 today. April'25 Live Cattle was 80 cents higher today and settled at 203.82 ½. Today's high was 205.55 and that is the new contract high as well. Today's low was 202.37 ½ and the 1-month low is 192.87 ½. Since 12/27 April'25 Live Cattle are 10.47 ½ higher or more than 5%. The Feeders climbed to new highs but fell apart today. March'25 Feeder Cattle were 1.32 ½ lower today and settled at 275.25. Today's high was 279.20 and that is the new contract high as well. Today's low was 273.77 ½ and the 1-month low is 259.77 ½. Since 12/27 March'25 Feeder Cattle are 14.70 higher or almost 6%. The Hogs gained another buck today. April'25 Lean Hogs were 1.67 ½ higher today and settled at 89.87 ½. Today's high was 90.47 ½ and the 1-month high is 91.37 ½. Today's low was 87.50 and the 1-month low is 84.50. Since 12/27 April'25 Lean Hogs are 35 cents higher or almost ½ %. The Fats continued higher again today, while the Feeders had a small pull back. These prices will not last forever, and you should take advantage of the current prices while you can. This is an anomaly, and anything is possible, within reason. If you haven't hedged anything yet, that is pretty risky, and I recommend locking in the current pricing in far out months, tomorrow. When the music stops, it will be very ugly. I did not think the market would rally this much, but it did, and now you should take advantage of it. The Cattle Markets can change fast, and there are many factors out there that can push it lower. The first being tariffs, and how other countries respond to tariffs, if they are imposed by the Trump Administration. Then there is the record long position by the Funds in the Cattle Market. When they start selling, they will have to move fast. Everyone will be looking for and waiting to jump on that trade. The Fed meets again this week, and there is little chance the Fed will move the rates in either direction, so that means no new capitol to inject into the Commodity Markets. There are also Cattle on our Southern border, just waiting to be allowed into the US, and that will happen sooner than later. The Stock Markets were wild this morning, and with such elevated Stock Prices, a pullback or small correction is a likely scenario. Any of these factors can be a negative force on the Fats and Feeders, but two or more at the same time will definitely get your attention. Hogs get fed and Pigs get slaughtered. Lock it in now. Speaking of Hogs, they have been moving like Feeders and will need to correct again soon. The 1-month low is 84.50 and the 200-Day moving average is 83.55. I like the 84 level for the April'25 Hogs right now. The April'25 Fats made a new contract high today but did not close well. Apri'25 Fats settled $1.72 ½ below today's high of 205.55. There are 67 Days left to expiration (on 4/4/25) in the Option Market for the April'25 Fats. Take a look at the April'25 190 Put, they settled at 1.17 ½ today, and would only cost $470.00 each, plus fees and commissions. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 190.53, the 100-Day moving average is 189.67, and the 200-Day moving average is 188.53. The Feeders also made a new Contract high at 279.20, but had an ugly close, settling $3.95 below the high at 275.25. The Feeders could have a significant move lower if the Market collapses. The Options on the March'25 Feeders expire in 59 Days, on 3/27/25. If there is a collapse, I like the 250 level. The March'25 250 Puts settled at 82 ½ cents today, and would cost $412.50 each, plus fees and commissions. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.05, the 200-Day moving average is 249.76, and the 100-Day moving average is 249.16.
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The Grain Markets were all lower today. The Beans dropped double digits today. March'25 Soybeans were 10 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1045. Today's high was 1051 and the 1-month high is 1076 ¼. Today's low was 1040 and the 1-month low is 985 ½. Since 12/27 March'25 Soybeans are 55 ¼ cents higher or more than 5 ½ %. The Corn market was down as well today. March'25 Corn was 4 ½ cents lower today and settled at 482. Today's high was 484 ¾ and the 1-month high is 494 ½. Today's low was 477 ¾ and the 1-month low is 449 ¼. Since 12/27 March'25 Corn is 28 cents higher or more than 6%. The Wheat Market was down again as well today. March'25 Wheat was 8 ½ cents lower today and settled at 535 ½. Today's high was 543 and the 1-month high is 566 ¾. Today's low was 532 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 526. Since 12/27 March'25 Wheat is 11 cents lower or just over 2%. The Grains have all continued lower since the recent overpriced panic took place. The Grains don't need to be higher yet, and this morning you saw what the threat of tariffs will do to the Ag Markets. I still think the March Soybeans will drift down to the 1020 level, and then below 1000. The 100-Day moving average is 1022 ¼, and the 50-Day moving average is 1006. The 1-month low is 985 ½. I did not think the Corn Market was ready for 5.00 Corn, and so far, the Market has stayed below that level. I still think the March '25 Corn will head toward the 450 level. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 451 ¼, the 1-month low is 449 ¼, the 200-Day moving average is 448 ¼, and the 100-Day moving average is 441 ¼. The Wheat Market continues to suck, down another 8 ½ cents, but the contract low of 526 is only 9 ½ cents away. I still think it is possible to rally, and if it does, it will be quick, and I like the 580 level. Natural Gas took a pounding today and is sitting at a great entry point.
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I will not be in the office next week, I will be in San Antonio for Cattle Con. If you will be there, stop by and say hello. We will be in booth #3860. I will have my laptop with me and will still be able to execute orders. I will not be here this Friday as well; I have a Funeral to attend. Have a great day.
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Today's Brazil Weather Radar Map Below.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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