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1/29/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed again today, with the Fats and Feeders breaking multiple dollars. The Fats dropped over two dollars today. April'25 Live Cattle was 2.32 ½ lower today and settled at 204.95. Today's high was 207.60 and the 1-month high is 207.72 ½. Today's low was 204.50 and the 1-month low is 192.87 ½. Since 12/27 April'25 Live Cattle are 11.60 higher or 6%. The Feeders broke almost three dollars today. March'25 Feeder Cattle were 2.97 ½ lower today and settled at 275.27 ½. Today's high was 279.82 ½ and that is the new contract high as well. Today's low was 274.75 and the 1-month low is 259.77. Since 12/27 March'25 Feeder Cattle are 14.72 ½ higher or almost 6%. The Hogs gained again today. April'25 Lean Hogs were 42 ½ cents higher today and settled at 91.32 ½. Today's high was 92.50 and the 1-month high is 91.37 ½. Today's low was 90.40 and the 1-month low is 84.50. Since 12/27 April'25 Lean Hogs are 1.80 higher or 2%. The Cattle Markets broke today, as they should, but was this a temporary pull back, or the beginning of the end? The Fed did not change the rate this afternoon, so there will not be any new capitol injected into the Cattle or any Commodity Market. The last two rate cuts coincided with rallies in the Fats and Feeders, as the Funds started deploying capitol and getting long. That has stopped. Today the April'25 Fats ran out of steam and gave a couple dollars back, and the March'25 Feeders fell almost three bucks. There are still several factors that can cause the Cattle Markets to break. This weekend the Trump Administration could start implementing tariffs on China and many other countries. If that starts a trade war, it will not be kind to the Livestock or Grain markets. Japan is in talks with Brazil about importing Brazilian Cattle. It could be for leverage with the new Administration, but if it comes to fruition, it will not be positive for the Cattle Markets. The US Southern border is still closed to Cattle from Mexico, but that will change, sooner than later, and that will pressure the Market as well. Then there are the record long positions in both the Fats and the Feeders. They will not hold a long position forever. They may roll a few more contracts to the next month, but they need to be paid as well, and that happens when they close out their position. I would think contract highs would be a reasonable level to start selling, especially with many potentially negative factors still floating around out there. When the climate changes in the Cattle Markets, it will be shocking. I recommend locking in these prices as far out as you can, now. The April'25 Fats traded 12 ½ from the 1-month high today, and then broke $3.22 ½ off the high, and closed just 45 cents above today's low. If a big break does occur, I like the 190 level now, for starters. The 1-month low is 192.87 ½, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.62 ½, the 100-Day moving average is 190.19, and the 200-Day moving average is 188.75. The March'25 Feeders made a new Contract high today of 279.82 ½ and then broke $5.07 ½ and settled just 52 ½ cents above the low of the day. I would call that a bad close. The Cutout was down again today as well, dropping another $1.91. If the Feeders truly break, it could be a very large move lower. If it gets ugly, I like the 250 Level in the March'25 Feeders. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.36, the 100-Day moving average is 250.10, and the 200-Day moving average is 250.07. If the Cattle Markets take a dive, I feel the Hogs will follow. I like the 84 level, and then 80 level in April'25 Hogs.
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The Grain Markets were all double digits higher today. The Beans reclaimed yesterday's loses today. March'25 Soybeans were 15 ½ cents higher today and settled at 1060 ½. Today's high was 1061 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1076 ¼. Today's low was 1044 ½ and the 1-month low is 985 ½. Since 12/27 March'25 Soybeans are 70 ¾ cents higher or more than 7%. The Corn market was higher as well today. March'25 Corn was 11 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 497. Today's high was 497 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today's low was 485 and the 1-month low is 449 ¼. Since 12/27 March'25 Corn is 43 cents higher or almost 10%. The Wheat Market shot higher today. March'25 Wheat was 17 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 562 ½. Today's high was 564 ¾ and the 1-month high is 566 ¾. Today's low was 544 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 526. Since 12/27 March'25 Wheat is 16 cents higher or almost 3%. The Grains all charged ahead again today, and I think a pullback could occur. I still don't see a reason for the Soybeans to be at this level. I still feel the March'25 Soybeans can head toward the 1020 level and then around the 1005 area. The 100-Day moving average is 1022 and the 50-Day moving average is 1007 ¾. The Beans have rallied more than 70 cents in the last month, and I don't expect that to last. March'25 Corn made a new Contract high and settled just ½ a cent below that high. There must be a reason Corn is still under 5.00. I feel it is too high again and can head toward the 450 level again. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 456, the 1-month low is 449 ¼, the 200-Day moving average is 448 ¼, and the 100-Day moving average is 442 ½. March'25 Corn is up almost 10% over the last month, and I expect a pullback in the Corn as well. The Wheat Market has finally started a move higher, and I feel the March'25 Wheat can still reach the 580 level. The 100-Day moving average is 573 ¼, and the 200-Day moving average is 605 ½.
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Today's Brazil Weather Radar Map Below.
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I will not be in the office next week, as I will be in San Antonio for Cattle Con. If you will be there, stop by and say hello. We will be in booth #3860. I will have my laptop with me and will still be able to execute orders. I will not be here this Friday as well; I have a Funeral to attend. Have a great day.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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-Bill
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Bill Allen
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