Grain Markets are Mixed Midweek

Wheat

Tuesday’s Recap
May Wheat futures settled at a one week low of 587’6 Tuesday, losing 5’6. Across all maturities, 160,598 contracts were traded, with 84,449 done in the May maturity. Overall open interest dropped 5,925, or 1.45%, to 402,014. May gained 5,162 (2.53%), finishing at 209,329.

Technicals
May wheat futures broke below the 20-day moving average which led to a drop near our 4-star support pocket from 574 1/2-577 1/2. The Bulls not only need to see this defended but really want to see consecutive closes back above yesterday’s high to reignite the optimism from the first half of the month, that has since dissipated.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 598 1/4-602 3/4***, 616 1/2-621 3/4****
Pivot: 585-588-1/4
Support: 574 1/2-577 1/2****, 564 3/4-569***

Fundamental Notes
Grain consultancy Sovecon said on Tuesday that it had revised down its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2024/2025 season to 42.2 million metric tons from 42.8 million. It also increased its Russian wheat exports forecast for the 2025/2026 season to 38.9 million tons from 38.3 million tons, Sovecon said.

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the May 630 calls with 3,713 done and the April 555 puts with volume of 986. Calls with the greatest open interest are the July 900 strike (10,682), and for the puts are the May 550 strike (4,605).

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended the day slightly higher with WVL gaining 0.24, to close the session at 29.04. Historical volatility (30-day) settled at 29.59%, losing 0.56%, to a one week low. The WVL Skew was sharply up with the 30-day adding 0.63, finishing the session at a one week high of 6.15.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 2.24.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames….. 

Read the Full article here: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/02/26/grain-markets-are-mixed-midweek/

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