Dave Pre-Q4 Earnings: Buy or Sell the Stock Ahead of Results?

Dave Inc. DAVE will report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Mar. 3, after market close.

See Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.

The consensus estimate for total earnings is pinned at $4.22 per share, whereas it incurred a loss of $4.07 a year ago.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $341.3 million, suggesting 31.7% growth on a year-over-year basis. There has been no change in analyst estimates or revisions lately.

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DAVE reported an earnings surprise of 208.2% in the third quarter of 2024.

Dave Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Dave Showcases Lesser Chances of Posting Q4 Earnings Beat

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for DAVE this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Dave has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Rising Members & Low CAC to Have Been DAVE’s Drivers in Q4

We expect the top line to have benefited from a rise in new members. In the third quarter of 2024, new members grew 19.3% year over year. The Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) declined from $16 in the first quarter of 2024 to $15 in the third quarter of 2024. The company has been able to lower the CAC while increasing its new member count, suggesting sustainable growth in the long run.

DAVE’s focus on member acquisition at a rising scale increases the monthly transaction member base in a cost-efficient manner, strengthening its market position.

Dave Stock Soars

DAVE shares have skyrocketed 269.4% in a year, outperforming the 48.1% rise of its industry and 15.9% growth of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. The company has performed better than its industry peers, Fathom Holdings Inc. FTHM and First Advantage Corporation FA. FTHM has declined 62.5%, while FA has gained 3.9% in a year.

One-Year Price Performance

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Dave’s stock is looking cheaper and is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 18X, below the industry’s 39.8X.

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DAVE’s Investment Considerations

The company has an innovative approach to short-term lending. Its cash advance products worth $50-500 serve a large market underserved by traditional banks, mainly those who seek alternatives to payday loans and overdraft fees. The company has enhanced user flexibility by structuring its fee at 0-5% while generating revenues.

Dave is not shy of using AL and ML to operate its credit model, leading to low credit losses and effective customer service, with 90% of the support tickets resolved without any intervention from agents. DAVE’s business model has transformed the short-term lending market, which, when combined with technological prowess, positions it for significant growth.

The company’s liquidity position is appealing to investors as the current ratio in the third quarter of 2024 stands at 6.81, significantly higher than the industry’s 2.21. Dave's ability to generate 33.7% in return on equity in the third quarter of 2024, well above the industry’s 6.2%, is a green flag for investors.

Add DAVE to Your Portfolio This Earnings Season

Dave’s capability to add members while reducing CAC is impressive and it positively impacts the top and bottom lines. The company’s business model targets underserved customers, making it a market disruptor in the credit-lending space. On top of that, a strong liquidity position and high return on capital boosts investment appeal.

DAVE remains fundamentally strong and possesses a discounted valuation. We believe that the stock price will rally further. Hence, we recommend investors buy Dave’s stock now.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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