A Choppy Grain Trade Creates Opportunity

Corn

Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was higher with the May contract up 2’4 to 461’0. Overall, 375,615 contracts were traded, with 180,875 done in May. Total open interest fell by 18,607, or 1.01%, with May down by 14,440 (2.07%) to 684,066.

Technicals
May corn futures attempted to get something going to the upside early in yesterday’s trade but ultimately failed to make any meaningful progress. Weakness has crept in overnight with prices trading back to our first support pocket from 454 1/2-457 3/4. A break and close below here and we could see a further retracement towards the lows from the start of the month, 442 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 480-484***, 486 1/2-488 1/2****
Pivot: 472 3/4-473 1/2
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 550 calls with 11,184 done and the April 455 puts with volume of 4,780. In May options, the most actively traded call was the 480 strike with 4,641 done, and the 460 put leads with volume of 2,930. Option open interest is highest for the July 500 calls at 35,997, and the July 450 puts at 20,039.

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility finished moderately down as CVL fell 0.95 to close the session at 26.80. Dropping 0.44% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 23.28%. The CVL Skew closed the session moderately lower, off 0.28 to finish at 0.63, a one week low.

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