Markets React to Fed’s Forecast Adjustments: E-mini S&P and NQ Face Key Levels

The Market's Inflection Point

Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report from Miami to discuss the market dynamic ahead of the Fed, NVDA’s GTC conference, and more.

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5729.75, up 60.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,951.00, up 249.25

The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and raised its Core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. The committee also said it will slow the pace of its balance sheet runoff. The adjustments were to be expected and arguably align with an optimistic view because it sees GDP improving and Core PCE coming down in 2026-2027, signaling a temporary hit aligned with tariffs. This, coupled with a calm demeanor from Fed Chair Powell during his press conference, brought calm over markets amid a time of tremendous uncertainties. At least for a moment, there are slightly less uncertainties and risk-assets responded favorably.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures ramped ahead of the Fed’s announcement, and after, before coming off the best levels for settlement. The overnight was firm too, but early this morning things turned south. One could blame the traditionally fickle day after the Fed meeting price action, European central bank decisions and jawboning, soft price action in China, and stops below yesterday’s late low. The move now creates major three-star resistance, detailed in our levels below, aligning with yesterday’s settlement. It also lowers our Pivot and point of balance, a pocket in which we must see price action hold at and above through the first hour in order to set up for strength, otherwise leaving the market vulnerable once again, coming in at….

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