Crude Oil Outlook: Bullish Catalysts Emerge Amid Geopolitical Tensions

***ANALYSIS & LEVELS ROLLED TO MAY FUTURES

*** Bias shift to Neutral / Bullish from Neutral

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 66.91 up +0.16 [+0.24%]

WTI Crude oil futures settled marginally higher yesterday. Crude settlement is made official at 1:30pm CST, right when the Fed meeting began.

The Fed yesterday issued a hawkish and darkened outlook on the U.S. economy yesterday alongside a more elevated forward path of their projected “neutral” rate. Despite this, equity markets rallied after the meeting. At this point, it looks like most of this negative sentiment has been priced in, at least in equity markets.

The Russian – Ukraine ceasefire has all but fallen through while Israel continues to lash out against Middle Eastern foes military. The upside to crude still looks attractive.

Today, May Futures are lower by -0.04 to 66.87

Yesterday’s EIA report showed a strong surge in U.S. exports of petroleum and petroleum products. The Russian – Ukraine ceasefire looks to be in serious jepordy as Russia struck Ukrainian energy assets overnight. Alongside the Middle Eastern conflict ramping, catalysts are trending bullish.

The one deterrent to our more bullish tilt is the possibility of a Dollar strength coming through. With the Fed’s higher outlook for their neutral rate, flows into U.S. treasury’s once this government shutdown is sorted out could reverse the dollar weakness we’ve seen to start the year

Technical Analysis:

***ANALYSIS AND LEVELS ROLLED TO MAY CONTRACT
***Bias upgraded to Neutral / Bullish from Neutral

We remain tactically bullish on our bias through the end of the week. Technically futures remain in our highlighted trading range by the chart above. For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at…

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