Cattle Markets Continue their Surge

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May Feeder Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the April contract. It opened lower and raced to an early high which was a new high for the up move and a new all-time high Feeder Future price for the lead contract. Price quickly gave back the early rally and it broke down to the low of the day at 286.30. The breakdown tested support at 286.55 and price once again reversed course and traded higher the rest of the session to a new all-time high for the lead contract at 289.25. It settled near the high at 289.10 which also is a new all-time high settlement. Exuberance rules the cattle markets as Feeder prices continue to surge in the cash market and the Feeder Index is also repeatedly making new highs and today’s print came in at 285.94 a new all-time high price. The rally puts the lead contract within striking distance of the 300.00 level. In my opinion, this level is a strong psychological resistance price and it will be interesting to see how traders respond to a potential test of this level. Cattle are coming over the border from Mexico on a regular basis as the protocols seem to be working out for the inspection of the New World Screwworm but, they are still well below the levels we were receiving before the detection of the Screwworm. This slowdown in imports could be keeping the demand and price for feeder cattle at elevated levels. The number of cattle coming in are slowly building and as they become more proficient with the protocols maybe the numbers of cattle coming in will get to the levels of the previous year. Could this then curtail the aggressive buying of feeder weight cattle and slow the price gains we are seeing? We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 286.55. Support then comes in at the rising 8-DMA now at 283.30. Resistance levels are going to be set by pivot numbers, with the daily pivot price at 288.25. If settlement holds, we could test R1 resistance at 290.20. Resistance then comes in at R2 at 291.20. R3 is at 293.16.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 285.94 as of 03/19/2025. 

June Live Cattle opened higher and traded to the session low at 202.35. It spent most of the morning trading both sides of unchanged and then talk that cattle were bid higher down South sent prices higher into the close with the high made after settlement prices were determined. The high came in at 205.20 and settlement was at 205.025. Cash trades weren’t consummated during the trading session as packers are willing to wait until Friday once again. With the Cattle on Feed report due out after the close sentiment seems to be building that the packer is in trouble no matter what the Cattle on feed Report shows. The estimates are for the on-feed number to be 98.2% of last year with placements at 85.6% and marketings at 91.8%. Weather has been an issue for slaughter plants and we are seeing low numbers so far for the week. This helped cutouts earlier in the week but cutouts declined for choice beef on Thursday. Expectations are for packers to make up for the shortfall on Friday and Saturday weather permitting. But they could keep the numbers low as they try to build upon the cutout and try to force producers to lower prices to move their cattle. It is a battle the packing industry has been losing most weeks but they are determined to get control back in their hands. With the belief the numbers are limited going forward as calf feds come into play and the Texas cattle that would have been there if the Mexican cattle weren’t stopped coming over leaving a hole in the upcoming supply…. Will they be able to accomplish that desire? We’ll see!... If price can’t hold settlement, it could test support at 203.50. Support then comes in at the rising 8-DMA now at 202.00. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 205.55. Resistance then comes in at 207.725. This level is the all-time high for the lead contract.

Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 1.55 to 328.06 and select increased 0.68 to 309.36. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 18.70 and the load count was 121.

Thursday’s estimated slaughter is 114,000, which is below last week’s 121,000 and last year’s 115,773. The estimated slaughter for the week is 440,000, which is below last week’s 483,000 and last year’s 470,673.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  So far for Thursday negotiated cash trade has been at a standstill. Last week in the Southern Plains, live FOB purchases traded from 202.00-203.00. Last week in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt live FOB purchases traded at 206.00 and dressed delivered purchases traded at 325.00. Negotiated Sales:

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle at 202.00 and nothing on a dressed basis (so far).

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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