Triple Witching Sparks Volatility: Key Levels to Watch in E-mini S&P and NQ

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E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5712.75, down 17.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19879.25, down 71.75

Today is triple witching, the expiration of March futures, stock index options, and individual stock options. March futures and options on futures will expire on the opening bell. We do believe that given the recent sell-off, it positions the market to respond favorably post expiration. For what it’s worth, the sell-off really began February 21st, as week three options expired. On February 20^th, the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were slammed on the opening bell, and battled back to nearly unchanged by the end of the day. On February 21^st though, the market was slammed again on the open and could not claw back. While we now know there were larger fundamental shifts under the surface, however, on that day some of the selling was likely exacerbated due to worthless options ballooning. Yesterday had some similarities to Thursday, February 20th, but to the opposite end; indices rallied significantly on the opening bell, and those gains vanished as the day unfolded. Although we are not banking on a steadfast rally that balloons worthless calls today, we will be looking for aggressive buying that begins in the first 30 minutes and could set the tone through quarter-end.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are slipping ahead of the bell after President Trump reiterated, ‘on April 2^nd, the U.S. will get its money and respect back’. Price action is slipping below first key supports and testing into two waves of major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5669.25-5675.75 and 5650.75-5659.75 as well as in the E-mini NQ 19,701-19,706 and 19,604-19,648. There is also an article being circulated by the New York Post detailing White House insiders as saying, during the recent selloff, a deal between the U.S.’s closest trading partners, Mexico, Canada, and Europe, is being circulated around the ‘outer parameters’ of the Trump World. If the market can pull off these early lows, it will be critical to regain our Pivot and point of balance in order to help gain further traction, with this level coming in at…

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