Shootin' the Bull about not much

“Shootin’ The Bull”

End of Day Market Recap

by Christopher B. Swift

​3/25/2025

Live Cattle:

I can't find much information today that hasn't already been beat to death.  The higher price levels currently being achieved will simply further test the resilience the consumer has to rising beef prices.  As horribly counter as the price relationship has been to the seasonal tendency, but weakest time frame of the February/March top is from the end of March to the first of June.  The recent chart pattern has created the potential for a large head and shoulder pattern, with the left shoulder, neck line and head made, I expect the right neck line to be very similar to the left.  With a belief that more fed cattle inventory will be made available in April, and potentially less stress on feeder cattle from the farmer/feeder, ​​I am going to give the seasonal tendency room to unfold. 

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Feeder Cattle:  

There is little to comment on in feeders.  The weakest portion of the Moore Research seasonality is from now until the first of June.  I expect less pressure in feeder cattle purchases as row crop farmers swap their cowboy hats for the old John Deere or DeKalb seed caps.  I fully understand the 94 million acres of anticipated corn planted this year could give cattle feeders all the fuel they need to keep pushing weights higher. The drought in the western corn belt is an issue at the moment with few aspects to suggest a large rain reversal.  

Corn:

Grains are in wait of the planting intentions report with little else on the horizon until planting in earnest begins​​​.

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Energy/Bonds:

Energy has been mixed for most of the day.  Diesel fuel is the leader today.  I continue to anticipate softening in the energy sector.  Bonds and notes were a few tics higher, but nothing I could see to write home about. ​

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