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Euro/U.S. Dollar (^EURUSD)

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Euro/U.S. Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Falls Sharply on Dovish US PCE Inflation Report

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday edged to a new 2-year high but then fell back and ended the day down -0.72%.  The dollar was undercut by the US PCE deflator report, which was dovish for Fed policy and caused weaker US interest rate differentials with the 10-year T-note yield down -4 bp.  In addition, Friday’s US personal spending and consumer sentiment reports were slightly weaker than expected.

The dollar was also undercut by US political uncertainty as the US government faced a shutdown at midnight Friday if Congress does pass a stop-gap spending bill.

Friday’s PCE price index report was a bit weaker than expected, which could give the FOMC a bit more leeway to cut interest rates.  The Nov PCE price index rose +0.1% m/m and +2.4% y/y, a bit weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y.  The Nov core PCE price index rose +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y, a bit weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y.

Friday’s headline Nov PCE price index report of +2.... Read more

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Dec 17, 2024

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
340,837 (-111,474)
292,748 (-104,847)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
152,671 (-4,704)
218,566 (-14,382)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
22,018 (-60,120)
169,508 (-55,214)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
333,070 (+2,360)
170,058 (+1,882)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
75,931 (-844)
114,176 (-6,520)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
24,959 (-6,443)
20,042 (-8,246)

Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
1.03336 +0.93%
on 11/22/24
1.06297 -1.89%
on 12/06/24
-0.01144 (-1.09%)
since 11/20/24
3-Month
1.03336 +0.93%
on 11/22/24
1.12140 -7.00%
on 09/25/24
-0.07341 (-6.58%)
since 09/20/24
52-Week
1.03336 +0.93%
on 11/22/24
1.12140 -7.00%
on 09/25/24
-0.05130 (-4.69%)
since 12/20/23

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 88% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

3rd Resistance Point 1.05744
2nd Resistance Point 1.05109
1st Resistance Point 1.04701
Last Price 1.04292
1st Support Level 1.03658
2nd Support Level 1.03023
3rd Support Level 1.02615

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52-Week High 1.12140
Fibonacci 61.8% 1.08777
Fibonacci 50% 1.07738
Fibonacci 38.2% 1.06699
Last Price 1.04292
52-Week Low 1.03336

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