Did Wheat Just bottom at a 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement? Update

Wheat

(ZWK25) 

This is an update to the previous post on Wheat bottoming at a 78.6% retracement. It has now hit 38.2% above and the setback from there has held 38.2% back to the low showing how important the Fibonacci retracements are.

The chart below is key to this analysis.

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.

The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.

There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.

Here is the latest.

1/30/25

May

From last week,

Like March, it got above its swing point for the week, but failed to get above the first real test at the 580.25 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 10/2/24 high at 582.00. We will be looking for the first sign that a rally can continue, so we will use 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 563.00 as the key level for this week.

Use 563.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Below it, look for 78.6% back to the 1/10/25 low at 546.00. A failure to...   Note, we did have the level as 564.00 which was wrong, however that is why we have the charts with the analysis, so could have seen that the last two numbers were inverted.

May also didn't hold 38.2% at 563.00, however it failed to make a new low at a 78.6% level (546.00). The rally from it took it up to the 580.25 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 10/2/24 high, so this is the key level for the next week. The positive side is that the failure to make a new low also led to the market making a higher high this week. A setback from 580.25 could send this market back to test the low, so we will again watch the 38.2% level, holding it would be a very strong sign.

Use 580.25 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, you still have to watch 23.6% back to the contract high at 593.00, this will be the short term target, this level can send it back to test the lows. The long term target area is 38.2% of the same move at 628.00 (long term swing point) and the 634.75 major Gann square.

Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 1/10/25 low at 565.00, holding this would be a very strong sign since it is coming off from a 38.2% level of a much bigger range. The long term target is 78.6% of the same move at 547.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next two are 522.75 and 493.50.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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