Wheat Facing Weakness to Start the Week

Wheat futures are trading with losses so far on Monday, reverting from some early morning strength. Chicago SRW futures are down 4 to 5 cents in the nearbys so far on the day. KC HRW futures are 6 to 7 cents lower in the front months. MPLS spring wheat is 2 to 3 cents in the red so far on the session.

This morning’s Export Inspections report from FGIS showed a total of 536,217 MT (19.7 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week that ended on February 6. That was more than double the previous week and 31.58% above the same week last year. Of that total, 186,641 MT was headed to the Philippines, with 67,329 MT destined for the Dominican Republic and 64,668 MT on its was to Mexico. Marketing year shipments have totaled 14.566 MMT (533.2 mbu) since June 1, which is 24.37% above the same period last year. 

USDA’s WASDE data will be updated on Tuesday, with analysts looking for a slight increase to US carryout, up 1 to 799 mbu on average. Traders are also looking for world stocks to be down 0.22 MMT to 258.60 MMT.

The large managed money specs in CBT wheat futures and options were slashing 20,340 contracts from their net short as of February 4, taking the net position to -90,442 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed back 6,405 contracts to a net short of 35,981 contracts.

Russia’s IKAR estimates the country's wheat export total for 2024/25 at 43 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from their previous number. Their production estimate for 2025 was down 2 MMT to 82 MMT. 

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.78, down 4 3/4 cents,

May 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.90 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.97 1/4, down 7 cents,

May 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $6.07, down 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.25, down 2 3/4 cents,

May 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.35 3/4, down 2 cents,