European Commodities: Tariffs Move Grain Markets, While Sugar Futures Slump

Last Week's European Commodity Winners

Rapeseed (XRK25), +7%

March has shocked the rapeseed market, with China announcing 100% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports. Volatility is hitting historical record levels in this product for March. More bearish news was added from European production forecasts. For the 2025-26 season over 19 million tonnes are expected, compared to 17.2 million tn in 2024.

These factors seem to have created oversold conditions in this contract, as reflected in the last four daily bullish sessions.

On March 18, rapeseed made a sharp turnaround, ending the bearish mood started on Feb. 28. Prices are above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, confirming the current uptrend.

Expect resistance at the 50-day MA and in the area around 506-508. For now, bulls are in control. 

Key targets from here are resistance at 508 and 540.

Dutch TTF Gas (TGJ25), +3.64%

The latest decline comes from hopes about a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Speculators expect a resumption of Russian supply into Europe in such event.

In Europe, mild temperatures are expected, and windy conditions are contributing to increased demand for alternative energy sources. A sideways market seems the most likely outcome in the next sessions.

Dutch gas made a turnaround on Match 10 after a massive liquidation from the recent peak at 59.16 on Feb. 11. Prices are trading above the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) but are struggling to show a solid uptrend. Look up for the immediate resistance which is the 50-day EMA and a key psychological level. Breaking out above this area will confirm a solid uptrend direction.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is coming back from oversold  territory, but at the current 45.62 level, it shows no clear no strength in trend.

European Commodity Losers Last Week

White Sugar #5 (SWK25), -3.97%

Fundamentally speaking, Brazil is experiencing dry weather and there is lower-than-expected output in India supporting its export ban of sugar. In contrast, Europe is showing ample supply, helped by imports from Ukraine.

This contract keeps surprising traders. The current daily price action shows a clear "double top" at 564, a key resistance area that's hard to break. 

Prices are above the 50-day EMA but have just broken the 10-day EMA in a bearish signal after a rejection at the the mentioned double top. Short traders have their first next target at 530 and
then 516.

Nickel Cash (P7Y00), -2.57%

From May 2024 nickel entered a sharp bear market. There is a modest recovery in March, but prices struggle to break 16,500 upwards.

The global nickel market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, primarily due to significant production increases in Indonesia. This oversupply has led to a 40% decline in nickel prices over the past two years. Indonesia has emerged as the world's largest nickel producer, accounting for 61% of the global refined nickel supply by 2024.

Demand looks robust for 2025, as nickel is a critical component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and demand from this industry is projected to reach 1.5 million tonnes by 2025.

There are some measures by Indonesia to curb production; however, the oversupply situation seems to remain for the coming months. 

Key levels are support at 14,900 and resistance at 16,500.