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The Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD (BYDDF) fell by 12% in early trading Wednesday after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) reported the sale of more than one million shares.
Media publications like Fortune ran headlines suggesting the sky could fall on the very successful Chinese company.
“BYD stock plummets as investors worry Warren Buffett’s share sale signals his intent to exit the Chinese EV maker completely,” Fortune’s headline stated.
I’ve got three reasons Buffett isn’t exiting his position in BYD.
Berkshire Still Owns 19.92%
The filing by Berkshire’s energy subsidiary happened on Aug. 24. Buffett reduced his company’s stake in BYD by 1.33 million H shares from 220.05 million to 218.72 million. Berkshire’s stake in the company dropped by 12 basis points. That’s a reduction of 0.6%.
At this rate, it would take Buffett years to unwind his position. And, while I think he’ll be around to see 100, I doubt he wants to test out this hypothesis by a slow and painful exit from arguably one of his best investments of all time.
Think about it.
Berkshire paid $232 million for his stake in 2006. Until the recent sale, Buffett hadn’t sold one iota. Based on the Aug. 24 closing price of 258.80 Hong Kong Dollars ($32.97), he generated nearly $44 million from the transaction. Berkshire makes that much in a day.
Who knows? Maybe Buffett wants to sell off enough to cover the initial investment. Adjusted for inflation -- say 3% -- that’s $372 million. Given he’s just brought in $44 million, the remaining $328 million would require the sale of at least 9.95 million shares at current prices.
However, if the media continues to characterize the sale as anything other than profit-taking, BYD’s share price will likely experience more near-term turbulence.
So, let’s assume he sells 15 million H class shares to quickly meet the goal of paying down Berkshire’s initial investment. Buffett would be left with 18.6% of BYD.
Given that BYD is in the middle of a tremendous growth spurt, Berkshire would still be able to influence the company’s operations while reaping billions in capital gains.
If he sells BYD, he also might as well sell Apple (AAPL) while he’s at it. Make a real of things at the end of a stellar career.
I think not.
Think IBM
How many years did Buffett hold on to IBM (IBM) stock despite it being clear to most on Wall Street that the tech company was long past its best before date? Approximately 6.5 years.
Berkshire first bought 64 million shares of IBM in November 2011 at an average price of $170. He exited the position in May 2018 after years of declining revenues and a declining share price. Berkshire Shareholders are more than happy that he traded IBM for a snazzier tech stock.
In July, The Motley Fool’s Sean Williams wrote about the 15 stocks Buffett has held for at least 10 years. BYD is one of those names. As I look at the other names on the list, none have revenue growth potential near as high as BYD. The only Berkshire holding that comes close is Apple, which hasn’t quite gotten to the 10-year anniversary yet.
Cut your losses early and let your profits run. Buffett knows a good thing when he sees it. This sale is the farthest thing from IBM. I will eat my hat if Berkshire unwinds the entire position over the next 18-24 months.
It will not happen regardless of what some might think about his China concerns.
“BYD has done very well for [Berkshire], especially in the last three years. It’s not their style to sell just because someone says China is uninvestable,” Fortune reported what Kamat Capital Partners Chief Investment Officer Kerry Goh told Bloomberg.
No kidding.
BYD’s Best Days Are Ahead
BYD Auto shipped more than 354,000 EVs in the second quarter, 266% higher than Q2 2021 and 100,000 higher than Tesla (TSLA). The company officially stopped producing and selling gas-powered vehicles in March. EVs are leading the way for BYD.
It’s already in Norway, with more European countries on the horizon. I can’t imagine Buffett doesn’t know this. The world is BYD’s oyster right now.
As if the vehicle numbers aren’t enough, BYD delivered home-run earnings on Aug. 29, with revenues up 66% over last year. Its $521 million profit for the first six months of the year was triple the amount in the same period the previous year. It was also at the high end of its estimate for Q1 and Q2.
In 2022, BYD is on track to deliver between 1.5 million and 2.0 million vehicles, many of them battery electric or plug-in hybrids. It’s hard to imagine 2023 not being even better.
BYD’s best days are ahead of it. I wouldn’t read into Buffett’s move.
BYD is an excellent long-term buy.
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