Stocks Set for Muted Open as Investors Await U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.11%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.19% this morning, pointing to a slightly lower open on Wall Street after yesterday’s rally, while investors await a raft of U.S. economic data as well as remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

Tariffs have remained in focus for investors, with U.S. equities rallying on Monday amid optimism over more targeted U.S. levies. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday twice indicated that trading partners could be granted exemptions or reductions from his “reciprocal” tariffs. However, the U.S. president also stated that he will soon impose tariffs on automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and later added that levies on lumber and semiconductors will be introduced further down the line. “So we’ll be announcing some of these things in the very near future, not the long future, the very near future,” Trump said.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 notching 2-week highs. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Tesla (TSLA) surging over +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +3%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbing nearly +7% and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) rising more than +5%. In addition, Azek (AZEK) jumped over +17% after James Hardie Industries agreed to acquire the manufacturer of outdoor living products in a cash and stock deal valued at $8.75 billion. On the bearish side, Lockheed Martin (LMT) fell more than -1% after Melius Research and BofA downgraded the stock.

“Stocks look to continue to rally from oversold levels, and any reduction in potential tariff impacts will be an upward catalyst. I believe we have seen the worst of the market’s pullback, though we will continue to see increased volatility at the beginning of next month based on the outcome of President Trump’s tariff policies,” said Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial Partners.

Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, weaker than expectations of 51.9. At the same time, the U.S. March S&P Global services PMI rose to 54.3, stronger than expectations of 51.2.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he now sees just one interest rate cut this year, down from his previous forecast of two reductions, as tariff hikes are slowing progress on disinflation. “I moved to one mainly because I think we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target,” Bostic said.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.2% probability of no rate change and a 10.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in May.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 94.2, compared to last month’s figure of 98.3.

Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the January figure to be +4.6% y/y, compared to +4.5% y/y in December.

U.S. New Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 682K in February, compared to 657K in January.

The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will stand at 8 in March, compared to the previous value of 6.

In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and New York Fed President John Williams.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.351%, up +0.46%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.56% this morning as investors digest the German business climate survey and continue to monitor U.S. trade policy developments. Bank and energy stocks led the gains on Tuesday. However, the benchmark index’s gains were limited as uncertainty remained over the scale and extent of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Trump on Monday reiterated his plans to impose tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and other industries, heightening concerns over potential threats to major European exports. Meanwhile, a survey released on Tuesday showed that the German business sentiment indicator hit an 8-month high in March, with companies expecting a rebound following two years of contraction in Europe’s largest economy. Investors are also monitoring developments in Ukraine ceasefire talks, with Russia and the U.S. set to release a joint statement later today about the progress of negotiations. In corporate news, Shell Plc (SHEL.LN) rose nearly +2% after vowing to boost investor returns by strengthening its leading role in liquefied natural gas trading.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was released today.

The German March Ifo Business Climate Index has been reported at 86.7, weaker than expectations of 86.8.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed flat, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.46%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed flat today as investors remained cautious ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcement, with analysts warning that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs could lead to a “potential spillover to a global trade war.” Semiconductor and technology stocks weighed on the index on Tuesday. Investors are also looking for more stimulus measures from Beijing, given the expected challenges to the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, with attention focused on a press conference by the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China introduced a new method for pricing its one-year loans to commercial lenders, marking the latest step in policymakers’ efforts to overhaul their monetary policy tools. From March, the PBOC will conduct medium-term lending facility loan operations on a fixed-quantity, interest-rate bidding, and multiple-price bidding basis, as stated in a Monday announcement. Analysts noted that the change effectively phases out the previously crucial MLF rate and could relieve financial pressures for the nation’s banks. “We see a minor de facto rate cut from the move, which could mark the turn of monetary stance from a hawkish bias towards accommodative,” Citi’s Xiangrong Yu and Xinyu Ji wrote in a note. In corporate news, Xiaomi slumped over -6% in Hong Kong after the company raised funds by selling shares at a discount. Also, Alibaba fell more than -3% in Hong Kong after its chairman cautioned about a potential bubble emerging in data center construction.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, snapping a 3-day losing streak. The rally came in the wake of overnight gains on Wall Street, fueled by optimism that the next wave of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will be less severe than previously signaled. Automobile and other export-oriented stocks got an additional boost from a weaker yen. Meanwhile, minutes of the Bank of Japan’s January meeting released on Tuesday revealed that BOJ policy board members debated the pace of future interest rate increases after deciding to raise short-term rates to their highest level in 17 years. “Some members shared the recognition that real interest rates were expected to remain significantly negative even if the BOJ decided to raise the policy interest rate at this meeting, and that accommodative financial conditions would be maintained,” according to minutes for the bank’s January 23-24 meeting. BOJ policymakers agreed to pursue further interest rate hikes, with the majority of board members viewing the Japanese economy as broadly consistent with the bank’s projections. One board member stated that the BOJ should increase the policy rate to about 1% in the second half of the next fiscal year, assuming the economy and prices continue to develop as expected. Investors will look for further clues on the timing of the BOJ’s next interest rate hike in the summary of opinions from last week’s central bank meeting, which is set to be released on Friday. In corporate news, Nitto Kohki fell over -1% after cutting its full-year guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.51% to 21.53.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

KB Home (KBH) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder posted downbeat FQ1 results and cut its full-year revenue guidance.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) jumped more than +11% in pre-market trading after announcing a non-binding agreement with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to launch a series of exchange-traded funds later this year under DJT’s fintech brand Truth.Fi.

UniFirst (UNF) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after Cintas terminated acquisition discussions with the company.

Cloudflare (NET) climbed more than +5% in pre-market trading after BofA double-upgraded the stock to Buy from Underperform with a $160 price target.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $431 price target.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - March 25th

McCormick & Company (MKC), GameStop Corp (GME), Core Main (CNM), Rumble (RUM), Worthington Industries (WOR), Noah (NOAH), CorMedix (CRMD), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Beta Bionics (BBNX), Sanara Medtech (SMTI), Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI), Paysign (PAYS), Viomi Technology (VIOT), Atossa Genetics (ATOS), CarpParts.Com (PRTS), Cytosorbents Crp (CTSO), X4 Pharmaceuticals (XFOR), ACCESS Newswire (ACCS).